Week 5 NFL Picks

The best thing about professional football, is that every team has a chance of winning on every Sunday or Monday. It may not seem that way, but every the bad teams find a way to win at least once a year, and the really good teams find a way to lose at least one game every year. The parity in the NFL is what makes it the most popular sport in the US, because every teams fan base knows that no matter how bad they really are, they still may win because the teams are pretty even. This also makes the NFL a tough league to bet on, because the spreads are usually very small and heavy favorites often lose. Check out the Vegas spreads some time and look at the difference between college and pro football. This week in the NFL, only 4 games have a spread higher than a touchdown, so they are expecting every game to be close, every week. It's always more fun when your team has a chance to win. On to the picks, home teams in caps.


SAINTS (-3) over Panthers

The Saints have been a completely different team this year than what they were last year in their inspiring run to the NFC Championship Game. Reggie Bush has been found out for what he is, more of a 3rd down, screen or receiving back rather than an every down running back. The lose of Deuce McAllister will hurt them tremendously, and force Bush to be the main running back. He's shown his inability to run between the tackles and has been very ineffective in the passing game this year. Carolina has been up and down this year, relying on Steve Smith to carry the load for them. With Delhomme out and David Carr starting, the Panthers will try to run the ball with Foster and Williams, while the Saints will stack the line and force Carr to beat them. We saw how well that worked out for the Panthers last week.....


Jaguars (-2) over CHIEFS

I know, I know, the Chiefs looked a whole lot better last week in their comeback against the Chargers, but I am still not ready to believe that this team is any good. The Chiefs run game has been anemic and has forced Damon Huard to try o win the ballgame for them, and he is not capable of doing that. They only reason the Chiefs won last week was because their rookie wide receiver Dwayne Bowe utterly destroyed the Chargers. I don't expect a rookie wide receiver to carry a team like that every week, and especially against a very good Jaguars defense. The Jaguars will play good defense, run the ball with Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, and Garrard will only have to complete a few passes for them to win. Not by much, but the Jags take this one.


Lions (+3.5) over REDSKINS

I like what the Redskins are doing this year, playing Jason Campbell and letting him struggle if he is going to struggle. The thing is, he hasn't really struggled, even if he hasn't been too consistent. He has a great arm and can let it fly on deep passes to Santana Moss and Antwaan Randel-El. The 'Skins defense is stout and they have the one-two punch of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts in the run game. So why aren't I picking them? Because they are coming up against "God's Team" in the Lions. Jon Kitna has supposedly single-handily converted 20 Lions to Christianity. That's got to be some kind of record. But in all honesty, the Lions are starting to click offensively, especially in the passing game. Roy Williams is a legitimate stud at wide receiver and rookie Calvin Johnson has looked good too. Combined with getting 3.5 points this week, and the Lions are the pick.


Falcons (+8) over TITANS

Now, the Titans have looked good this year, and I trust Vince Young over most of the QBs in the league, and especially over Joey Harrington, but 8 points is just too much to pass up. The Titans defense has played well all year, and looked especially good against the Colts. Vince Young has carried this team on his legs and will continue to do so. The Falcons have looked horrendous at times, but are coming off of a win last week against Houston where they actually played some good football. That isn't a glowing recommendation of the Falcons, but hey, when in doubt, take the points.


TEXANS (-5.5) over Dolphins

Both teams are coming off of losses last week and are looking to bounce back. The Texans looked good before last weeks loss, where as the Dolphins layed down last week and didn't even put up a fight. I know Daunte Culpepper was fired up for some pay back action, but come on. The Dolphins didn't even show up to play football. The Texans need Ahman Green and Andre Johnson back, and this team will have a good chance to make the playoffs. Even without them this week, the Texans are just a better football team than the Dolphins.


STEELERS (-6) over Seahawks

Everyone and their mother will be taking the Seahawks with their 6 points today. I genuinely think that the Seahawks are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and just really aren't that good. Hasselback is very inconsistent and without a great line this year Shaun Alexander isn't that great either. Remember when he was unstoppable? What happened? On the other side, the Steelers have a little bit more defensively and I think Roethlisberger will do just enough this week. The line is a bit ridiculous, but I think the Steelers win by a touchdown.


Browns (16.5) over PATRIOTS

Yes, I am picking against the Patriots. I know they have demolished teams, and the Browns aren't exactly a good team, but come on, 16.5 points? This isn't college football, and the Browns have enough going on offense with Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis to score a few points. The Patriots may just be looking ahead this week and let the Browns creep up on them. It won't be an upset, but the Browns will cover.


Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS

How are the Rams consistently favored every week before this week? Did they finally just get found out? How could people not have known this two weeks ago? They are terrible, and are now starting Gus Frerotte. In Arizona, the Cardinals will be starting Kurt Warner over Matt Leinart, which I think is a good move for them. Leinart isn't as great as everyone seemed to think last year, and the Cardinals need someone who can throw the ball out to Fitzgerald and Boldin and let them make plays. The Cardinals just have too many weapons for the Rams to handle.


GIANTS (-3.5) over Jets

The battle of the crappy New York teams is upon us. Who can suck harder this week? The Jets are starting Chad Pennington, and that gives them the best chance to lose every week. The Giants are getting Brandon Jacobs back this week and look how that defense flew around last weekend against Philly. Don't tell me that Pennington will have any chance at all of avoiding any pass rushers. He can barely move, barely throw, and shouldn't be a starting QB in the NFL. The sooner the Jets figure this out the sooner Jets fans will stop being put on suicide watch.


Bucs (+9.5) over COLTS

Similar to the Pats/Browns game, 9.5 points is just too much to pass up in this situation. Yes the Colts are good and can conceivably score a ton of points, but the Bucs defense is as good as it ever was. I don't get why teams get rid of Jeff Garcia either, he only wins games. Look at Philadelphia last year and the Niners before that. Garcia just knows how to win games and I don't understand why this guys is such a journeyman.


Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS

Simply put, the Broncos cannot stop the run and the Chargers have LT. If Norv Turner doesn't give LT at least 40 touches, LT may actually harm him. Seriously, has there been a worse front office decision in recent memory than the Chargers hiring Norv Turner. This guy is so bad that the fans were chanting for Marty Shottenheimer last week. The Broncos have too many injuries to overcome this week and still can't figure out how to tackle anyone. They are two plays away from being 0-4, and have a tough schedule in front of them. With Henry's future in doubt, the Broncos will be looking to reload for next year.


NINERS (+3) over Ravens

Here we go again.....when in doubt, take the points right? I cant figure out if Trent Dilfer is a good or a bad thing for them. The Niners were everyone's sleeper pick this year, and the bandwagon peaked a bit early with them. They certainly haven't lived up to their pre-season potential and the jury is still out on Alex Smith as an NFL QB. This will be Gore vs. McGahee all day, with this game possibly ending in a tie. Who knows. Take the points.


PACKERS (-3) over Bears

"Brett Favre is back!" Well......a little bit. Yes he has been great this year and has everyone talking about him and how much he's changed and buckled down, watched more film, and taken less chances. Here's the thing though, he hasn't taken more chances, he's been the same as he's always been, but he's just thrown less interceptions. The past few years you could tell if the Packers won by looking at the box score to see how many INTs Favre had thrown. None? Probably a win. 2-3? Probably a loss. With the Bears secondary depleted, look for Favre to have another good game. The Bears are in desperate need of a good QB, and let me just say that Brian Greise isn't the answer either.


Cowboys (-10) over BILLS

Yes I know it's 10 points and I've taken the points on almost every spread over 7, but it's the Cowboys against the Bills. It's just supposed to happen. I could not even know who was starting and tell you that the Cowboys will win. Throw in the ridiculous Cowboys offense with Romo and T.O., and the Cowboys will win by over two touchdowns. Speaking of Romo, has there been a better story this year (other than Favre)? Everyone loves the guy (including T.O), he throws up crazy fantasy numbers and he's dating Carrie Underwood. What's not to like?